A war of words between climate scientists has broken out. On the one side, there are those who are now openly expressing their pessimism about the future and on the other those who are still optimistic that things can be turned around. They call the pessimists ‘doomists.’
This debate was intensified by a survey this month which questioned nearly 400 scientists involved with the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change about where they thought global temperatures are headed. The 2015 UN Paris Agreement requires nations to work together to keep the temperature rise below 2°C, with significant efforts towards limiting the rise to ‘only’ 1.5°C. The survey found that almost none of the scientist thought 1.5ºC was possible, almost 80% thought we are heading for at least 2.5ºC and almost half expect a world more than 3ºC warmer. They see this as a world of famines, conflicts and mass migration far beyond what we are already seeing. Some suggest we will see major disruption to global systems within a decade.
Scientists don’t often offer an emotional commentary but those who took part in the survey, said things like “I find it infuriating, distressing, overwhelming” and “I’m relieved that I do not have children, knowing what the future holds.” Some talked about suffering from depression.
Of course, amongst accelerating impacts, from floods and droughts to heatwaves and storms, it should come as no surprise that climate scientists are disappointed in the lack of action being taken by governments and companies. Professor Kevin Anderson of Manchester’s Tyndall Centre has been saying for a decade that the 1.5° target is unachievable and accuses experts of trying to shut down the debate about the fundamental changes that are needed to produce deep emissions reductions.
On the other side, a group of scientists like Professor Michael Mann from the University of Pennsylvania agree that things are serious and getting worse but maintain that there is still thing time to turn things around. Indeed, they call those scientists and campaigners who point out the dire future we might be heading for ’doomists.’ They believe that these messages make people give up hope and think of the climate problem as being too big and hard to tackle. Mann thinks the doomists are doing the fossil fuel industry’s job for them. He says “the antidote to doom is doing.”
Doom and gloom was a big debate in the world of the environment groups last decade, with many believing that telling people, for instance, that the polar bear was doomed, was too harsh a message and others believing that only stark messages could motivate people to act strongly enough. A very important bit of work convinced most that tough messages about bad impacts were useful If they came with strong messages about what could be done to head off or reduce those impacts.
For a long time environmental groups were frustrated by the reluctance of most climate scientists to speak out and in many cases by their inability to speak in plain terms that the public and politicians could easily understand.
Climate communication has become much more sophisticated. Social media is full of graphs and charts which illustrate the accelerating change being felt by our planet and groups like Scientist for Extinction Rebellion give voice to warnings from scientists. The clear message that we are in a bad way, that things are going to get worse and that we need to take very urgent action is now coming loudly from climate scientists and senior UN figures.
Mann claims that the doomers accuse climate scientists of lying to the public. But the other side would say that voices which say it can all be ok, look at the progress and that technology will save us, feed a complacency that is not justified. In a nice clear bit of communication, Anderson calls this a “litany of optimistic crap.“ The danger is that we will think it is enough to celebrate the progress there is, even it is so far nothing like up to meeting the climate challenge. Progress is good, but we need so much more.
A version of this article appeared in the Scotsman newspaper on the 15th May 2024.