Globally 2023 was the warmest year ever recorded, fully 1.48ºC warmer than pre-industrial times. Climate scientist tell us we must avoid going over a 1.5°C temperature increase, to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. This is a first target in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
2023 was also the warmest year for Wales and Northern Ireland, in England the second warmest and in Scotland the third warmest after 2022 and 2014. This means that 9 of the top 10 warmest years in Scotland have been since 2000, with 1997 the only one earlier.
Temperature records for Scotland go back to 1884. The average annual temperature in the records is 7.2ºC; 2023 came in at 8.3ºC. 2023 also saw the warmest June ever recorded, the second warmest February and the third warmest September.
The difference between the coolest year in 1892 and the warmest year in 2022 is 2.8ºC.
A fairer comparison is to look at the average for the first 20 years in the temperature record and the most recent 10 years, which shows a temperature rise of 1.3ºC. I am using only 10 of the most recent years because temperatures are now changing so quickly.
So, even though global warming caused by fossil fuels and deforestation started in the mid-1700s and recent changes in ocean currents mean that Scotland is not warming as fast as many other parts of the world, we have still nearly reached that crucial 1.5°C temperature threshold.
On rainfall the records go back to 1836 and show that annual rainfall is increasing, with seven of the ten wettest years occurring in the last 35 years. The most recent year to feature in the top twenty driest years is 1955. There is a more marked increase for winter rainfall, with October to March rainfall increasing by nearly a third between the start of the series and recent decades. Hence our increasing flooding problems.
On sunshine, where records start in 1910, there has been a small increase in average annual sunshine.
And the result of these changes is suffering and death. The 2022 heatwave across Europe killed nearly 62,000 people. The multi-year drought in Eastern Africa has 40 million people facing severe hunger.
So, with all these clear warnings, is the world taking climate change seriously? Not really.
The UK Government is about to pass new legislation which will guarantee more oil and gas production, and therefore more climate change, against all international advice.
And the government of Azerbaijan have just appointed Mukhtar Babayev, who worked for the state oil company for 26 years, as the president of the next climate talks, which will start in Baku in November. So, for the second year running, the world’s delicate climate negotiations will be held in a country which is overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuel income and chaired by an oilman.
The planet could not be sending us clearer signals that we are heading for disaster. There are many good things happening in the transition to a low-carbon world – in transport, housing, energy production and industry. But they are not happening fast enough, particularly as most oil-producing nations drag us backwards by continuing to plan to produce more and more fossil fuels.
A version of this article appeared in the Scotsman newspaper on 10th January 2024.
Image: 1884-2023 annual average temperature difference for Scotland from the 1971-2000 average for Scotland.